What is SHTF?

What is SHTF?

You didn’t come this far to stop.

Step 0. What is SHTF?

In a world filled with uncertainties, being prepared for the unexpected is not just a prudent idea; it’s a necessity. SHTF is an acronym for "Sh*t Hits The Fan" which encapsulates the lifestyle or concept of being ready for worst-case scenarios. Whether they are natural or man-made disasters they come in many categories such as social unrest, a pandemic, a hurricane, a wildfire, a tornado, a nation's financial disruption or collapse, war, or any other situation that disrupts the normal functioning of society; many of which we have all seen in our lifetimes at an accelerated rate. Now that the acronym is out of the way, let's go briefly into what SHTF scenarios may exist.

Step 1. Understanding the SHTF Scenarios

The scenarios listed below are any that may be seen or unforeseen circumstances that can lead to societal breakdown or a significant disruption in infrastructure, services, and resources. It’s a moment when the fabric of society is tested, and individuals or communities must rely on their preparedness, resilience, and resourcefulness to navigate through the crisis.

A. Natural Disasters

Natural disasters like earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, or wildfires can strike without warning, leaving communities devastated and struggling to cope. In such scenarios the basic necessities like food, water, shelter, and medical supplies may become scarce, making preparedness crucial for survival. Beyond that, you should be well-informed, experienced, and with a community that will greatly aid you in a natural disaster. Knowing that it is coming (be it seasonal, via radio/TV/internet) will give you and your family ample time to either stay or leave.

B. Economic Collapse

An economic collapse or failure can lead to widespread unemployment, inflation, and shortages of essential goods. It can trigger civil unrest, looting, and even government instability. Preparing for economic downturns involves safeguarding finances, investing in tangible assets, and acquiring skills that are in demand even during tough times. Skills include being financially and fiscally responsible, spread loading your wealth and assets (gold, silver, stocks, real estate, art, etc.), having multiple streams of income, and having a backup plan for if one or many go down. I have multiple banks, I hold multiple tangible and intangible assets, and I don't trust the system with our track record of many failures and oversights. if you do not prepare here, you will be left broke, depressed, frustrated, and clinging to hope that society will save you.

C. Epidemics, Pandemics, and Endemics

To compare each, a pandemic is an infection that becomes international in its spread and affects multiple countries without dying out. An epidemic is an infection that is started but its spread is contained locally to a small town, city, or as large as a country, but hasn't expanded to the pandemic level. An endemic is one that is here to stay, it can be seasonal like the common cold, or it just hasn't been defeated yet like malaria, HIV/AIDS, etc. Pandemics as evidenced by recent global events, can bring entire nations to a standstill. The spread of infectious diseases can overwhelm healthcare systems, disrupt supply chains, and necessitate strict quarantine measures. People will lose their minds, infected or not, something creates a fever in people to go mad. In this scenario, it would be prudent to keep up with trusted sources, research the disease/bacteria/virus/infection, stockpile essential supplies (PPE, food, water, cleaning supplies, etc.), practicing good proven hygiene are essential during pandemics. Although the last one (COVID) did lead to many deaths, it was nowhere near the death toll that could come if a worse infection were to spread.

D. Social Unrest

Social unrest can erupt due to various factors such as political instability, racial tensions, economic inequality, social movements, and more. Social unrest can be seen whenever there are riots, protests, and civil disobedience that do disrupt daily life, compromise safety, and lead to widespread chaos. Being vigilant, staying informed, having a strong security plan and tools, and having a plan for evacuation or sheltering in place are crucial during such times. if you live close to the epicenter of a social unrest area you will see the destruction and havoc that it can cause. This is why many preppers are prudent not to live in high-population centers or cities that have a history of contention, high crime rates, and political scandals. These happen all over the world (Paris, France, London, UK, , and you can research how social unrest can indeed bring SHTF right to your doorstep.

E. Technological Breakdown

In an increasingly interconnected world, reliance on technology is pervasive there is no doubt. With threats such as cyberattacks, electromagnetic pulse (EMP) events, industrial terrorism, or a solar storm could cripple critical infrastructure. Infrastructure or systems affected include communication networks, medical systems, transportation systems, logistics systems, bank and financial institutions, emergency systems, and utilities. On a smaller scale, all of your hand-held devices, television networks, ATMs, gas pumps, grocery stores, and more can also be affected or rendered useless (event-dependent). Being prepared for technological breakdowns involves developing alternative communication methods (PACE plan, radio systems, analog communication, and signal plans) having backup power sources, faraday caging and protecting devices, keeping cash or tangible assets to trade with, not relying solely on the grid, and honing traditional skills will help in scenarios like this. Beware that an event like this might not cause as much physical damage as a hurricane or earthquake might, but many people realize that the breakdown of technological systems will lead to social unrest and widespread chaos in days if the grid does not come back up. Although this event may be a blessing for some, it will be a nightmare for others.

F. Nuclear War

Nuclear war is a catastrophic conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons which can result in widespread destruction, loss of life, and long-term environmental consequences. These weapons unleash immense energy causing devastating blasts, intense heat, and radioactive fallout that can persist for years or decades. Rendering affected areas uninhabitable and zoned off as deadly and non-permissible to any unprotected animal, humans included. Preparation for such an event involves several key steps: understanding the effects of nuclear radiation and blast waves, establishing an emergency plan for evacuation or sheltering in place, mass stocking up on essential supplies like food, water, and medical kits, creating a communication plan with loved ones, and staying informed about emergency protocols and evacuation routes. The terrifying fact is that nuclear war can happen and that normal people will have little to no warning before the bombs are initiated and ultimately when they strike. Further, the full potential of destruction and damage is still not known so much of the scientific world of post-blast conditions are still debated. If this scenario were to happen, we as preppers hope that we will be ready, but will we? Be sure to pray that those with access to nuclear weapon arsenals will begin and continue to foster international diplomacy and promote nuclear disarmament efforts to prevent nuclear conflict.

G. Terrorism (Mass Shootings / CBRN Based Attacks)

Mass shootings are devastating events characterized by the indiscriminate use of firearms to inflict harm upon a large number of people in a confined area. They often occur in public spaces such as schools, workplaces, entertainment venues, and places of worship. Mass shootings or terrorist attacks can result in numerous casualties and widespread fear and trauma within communities. On the other hand, CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear) terrorist attacks involve the deliberate release of hazardous materials or substances to cause harm to individuals and the environment. These attacks can lead to mass casualties, widespread contamination, and long-term health consequences. Some of which may never be discovered to have been caused by terrorist attacks in the first place! To prepare for both mass shootings and CBRN terrorist attacks, it is crucial for individuals and communities to engage in active shooter drills, establish emergency response protocols, and enhance security measures in vulnerable areas. Additionally, educating the public about recognizing suspicious behaviors and reporting potential threats can aid in preventing such incidents. Furthermore, investing in emergency response training for first responders and enhancing coordination between law enforcement agencies and emergency services can help mitigate the impact of these tragic events.

Step 2. Prepare for the Expected and Unexpected

A. Build a Stockpile

Stockpiling essential supplies such as food, water, medications, and hygiene products is a fundamental aspect of preparedness. Aim to have enough provisions to sustain yourself and your family for an extended period, accounting for potential disruptions in supply chains. Plan on having at least six months as a goal to have for your family. Organizing, categorizing and properly storing your preps will take time and will upgrade as you learn and do more in this field. Stockpiling personal protective equipment, personal security (knives, baseball bats, pepper spray, etc.), or guns and ammunition, extra clothing, and other gear is prudent. Make sure that if you are storing propane, gasoline, and other hazardous chemicals you take the proper safety precautions that mitigate or eliminate accidental discharge, flame, explosion, and cross-contaminating other resources that you have stored. There are a million ways to do all this, and that is a fun part of being prepared, so have fun with it and please don't become so obsessed with this step that you neglect the others.

B. Learn & Develop Survival Skills

Acquiring practical skills that you would realistically need in a SHTF scenario you should consider the environment you might need to survive in. In my opinion, there are three main categories of "survival skills". They are urban survival, rural survival, and last suburban survival. First is Urban Survival or any skills needed to survive in a city or metropolis. Next is Rural Survival (AKA Wilderness Survival) which includes any survival skills needed to survive in an environment sparse of human settlement and infrastructure; this is the hardest environment to survive in. And last is Suburban Survival skills which would be the skill set needed to survive in a suburban town or village. To me, this is the most sustainable environment to survive and build a community in. The skills to survive in each terrain or environment may overlap or be specifically needed and do not help you in other environments. The skills are endless, but some fundamental survival skills will come in handy no matter where you are. They include first aid, navigation, water sourcing and purifying, fire-making, crafting, shelter building/inhabiting, and self-defense. Knowing and improving your skillsets on each of these can significantly enhance your ability to survive in adverse conditions. Again, these are just the basics, I will write or make a video that is more in-depth for skills needed in each environment.

C. Establish a Support and Emergency Preparedness Network/Community and Plan

Building a support network within your community or among like-minded individuals can provide mutual assistance and resources during emergencies. Collaborate on emergency plans, share knowledge and resources, and offer support to those in need. This step does not just happen overnight, and be careful with who you associate with and let into your home and around your family. As being a prepper can be seen as a "lone wolf" or a "sheepdog" mentality, but I have learned that it really does take a community or a team to get things done as we can only do so much as an individual or as a small family unit. Anyone who exhibits mental instability, irrational decision-making, lack of motivation, or distaste in preparing could be detrimental to having in your group. Further, be careful as to not put a target on your back to become a victim of a robbery, home invasion, being drained by neighbors, or perhaps a victim to the dreaded "werewolf preppers". Know who you can trust, who can get the job done, who has a good head on their shoulders, and who can contribute to your goals and missions that may come up. And be careful to which groups you may join, as they may not have you or your family's interests as to what you hope they do.

D. Stay Informed and Remain Flexible

Stay informed about current events, potential threats, and developments that may impact your safety and well-being. Maintain a flexible mindset and be prepared to adapt your plans and strategies based on evolving circumstances. Doing your own research, fact-checking, avoid biased or unscrupulous organizations and individuals will suit you well. The hardest part, even that I am struggling with, is keeping a level head and not feeding into what news outlets do to manipulate us and divide us. This will be a topic that I plan on making a video and or article about later on.

E. Practice Situational Awareness

Developing situational awareness (SA) involves being observant of your surroundings, identifying potential threats, and making informed decisions to mitigate risks. Understanding and developing your SA will take years of learning, observing, and being in various scenarios. I will say, if you only stay in your house or never leave your town, then your SA is lacking! Stay alert to changes in your environment and trust your instincts to guide your actions. The more that you know, the more that you are trained for, when and if disaster may strike, pray that you are the one on the scene to take charge, protect yourself and others, and to be the change that you want to see in this crazy world!

F. Secure your Home, Build a No/No Go Criteria

The majority of SHTF scenarios will require an individual or family unit to hunker down and wait it out. In some scenarios, it is best to "bug out" or evacuate your home to seek better shelter. Having a "go" or "no go" criteria will help you decide on what indicators and threat levels with probability need to be met for you to decide on whether to stay in place or to bug out. There will be a video that I will create and discuss what I use to assist me in this action-based step. Securing your home should be on every person's mind, prepper or not. Locking your doors, having a tall fence, double securing your entrances, mitigating the chance of fire hazards, setting up a home security system, and keeping your gear and tools hidden or locked up are good ideas to prevent break-ins and or robberies. Beware of family members (especially the kids, kids' friends, or the crazy uncle or bother-in-law) from accidentally gaining unwanted or unwarranted access to your preparedness stockpiles and or guns and knives. Taking a solid gray man approach to your preparedness lifestyle is a good idea, secure your identity, secure your goals and stockpiles and practice smart SA and operational security (OPSEC) to prevent unwanted attention or prying devious eyes. It is a good idea to know your neighbors, even if by name and what they do or who they are can help. Understanding trouble makers in your neighborhood, community, or apartment complex will keep you vigilant and shielded better from unscrupulous characters from entering your life.

Conclusion

While the prospect of SHTF scenarios may seem daunting, imminent, terrifying, or (to some) something that you want to happen. Being proactive in your preparedness and hardening your resilience can mitigate risks and increase your chances of survival. By understanding the potential scenarios, taking practical steps to prepare, and fostering a resilient mindset, you have a higher chance to navigate through uncertainty with confidence and emerge stronger on the other side. Remember, it’s not a matter of if SHTF, but when—and being ready can make all the difference.